How did we get here and when will it end?

Since November 2023, the Bab El Mandeb Strait has been at the epicenter of a maritime crisis triggered by the Houthi rebels’ escalating attacks on international merchant shipping. Initially a moderate threat, the Houthis’ aggressive tactics—including missile strikes, drone attacks, and hijackings—have rapidly transformed the Red Sea into one of the most dangerous maritime routes in the world. The crisis began with the hijacking of the Galaxy Leader, a Bahaman-flagged car carrier, and quickly escalated to include 105 incidents by October 2024, including missile strikes on multiple vessels. This surge in attacks has caused widespread disruptions in global shipping, with up to 60% of container traffic being diverted around the Cape of Good Hope by mid-2024.

The Houthis, initially motivated by regional political conflicts, have expanded their target list to include any vessel associated with the US, UK, or Israel, further complicating the situation. These actions have led to soaring insurance costs, halted transit through the Red Sea by several shipping companies, and forced military intervention. While multinational operations like Operation Prosperity Guardian have provided some protection, the Houthis’ successful use of information warfare and their relentless targeting strategy have undermined efforts to restore safe passage. With no end in sight, the future of the region’s maritime trade remains uncertain.

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